🦄 Fairy Dust

👋 Hey — Egemen here.

Warning ⚠️ I'm gonna rant!

Because I am tired.

I really am.

Tired of watching us rebuild the same machine that wrecked the dot-com era, just with more GPUs and nicer slide decks.

Look at that chart below.

OpenAI in the middle. Nvidia even bigger in the middle of the middle. Around them you see Microsoft, Oracle, AMD, Intel, CoreWeave, AWS, Broadcom, a bunch of model startups.

Circles sized by market cap.
Arrows for hardware, investments, cloud contracts, venture money.

Please understand that this is not an ecosystem.

It’s a closed loop that generates trillions of dollars of market cap because some of these big guys are distributing their assets to each other without actual value behind it.

Money is not flowing from savings to productive projects in the real economy. It is spinning around the same table.

Basically:

• Nvidia gives OpenAI money.

• OpenAI hands the money straight back to Nvidia for chips.

• Oracle borrows or raises money, spends tens of billions on those same Nvidia chips, and then bills OpenAI 60 billion a year for cloud capacity.

• AMD hands OpenAI an almost-free call option on 10 percent of its equity, and OpenAI repays that kindness by signing up for 6 gigawatts of future GPU demand.

One analyst tried to model this and ended up with OpenAI needing to grow from roughly 10 billion in revenue in 2024 to around 577 billion in 2029 to make the infrastructure math look sane.

That’s Google-size revenue in zero-to-five years.

This is the part that makes me feel like I’m watching Wolf of Wall Street with better branding.

Partners. Customers. Shareholders. Counterparties. All the same names.

And underneath all this there is a very physical story.

Six gigawatts of AMD GPUs alone is enough power to run about five million US homes. Add ten gigawatts of Nvidia and ten more of Broadcom custom chips and you are building an energy system, not a product feature.

These contracts lock in for five to seven years. Data centers, grid upgrades, transmission lines, new gas plants, new renewables. None of that goes away overnight.

This is what a bubble looks like in slow motion. It’s a loop where valuations justify giant capex commitments and those commitments justify even higher valuations for the suppliers.

Then those gains make it cheaper to issue more equity or debt, where the new capital funds even larger commitments.

I am tired of watching trillion-dollar companies recreate the same circular games from 1999 and 2007 and acting shocked when people whisper the word “bubble”.

The crash does not have to look like a single loud pop. It can be a long grind.

The tech will stay. That part I am not worried about.

What worries me is that once again we are building critical infrastructure on top of fairy-dust assumptions about infinite growth and free money.

I am tired that we are not learning from our mistakes.

Not investment advice.

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