No new AI buyers

👋 Hey, Egemen here.

Ramp published its October AI Index on 14 October. 55.9% of US businesses on Ramp paid for AI in September. That share grew 0.62 points in the month. In March, it grew 2.41 points. I also look at Modal, which raised $750M after it passed $1B in annualized run rate.

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the menu today:

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I read the Ramp AI Index every month. It tracks which US businesses on Ramp pay for AI tools. Ara Kharazian, Ramp’s lead economist, published the October edition on 14 October, with data through September.

55.9% of those businesses paid for AI in September. A year earlier, the share was 43.8%. That is a gain of 12.1 points in twelve months.

The monthly gains are smaller now. Adoption grew 2.41 points in March. It grew 0.40 points in August and 0.62 points in September.

Kharazian writes, “It feels like we’re at the top of the S-curve.” He expects the next growth to come from “more intense adoption” by firms that already pay.

I see the same pattern in Ramp’s spend data. Ramp says 1% of firms drive 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic spend. Those top firms spent $9,568 per employee per month in September. That is 3.1% below their July high.

Token prices keep falling. Token volumes rose in August and September, and token spend barely grew. Kharazian also hears that customers hold the stronger hand in contract talks. Labs give discounts when a contract assumes above-normal spend.

My read for founders who sell AI to businesses: the easy first-time buyers are gone. More than half of these companies already pay for AI. Your next dollar comes from accounts that already buy, and they pay less per token each month.

👉 Split your pipeline into first-time AI buyers and accounts that already pay for AI. Forecast first-time buyers with the slower monthly gains in this index. Price on the work your product finishes, so falling token prices do not cut your revenue. Then find the 1% of accounts that drive most of your usage and write an expansion plan for each one.

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NY, SF and Stockholm / AI infrastructure / announced 14 October 2026

Modal has raised a $750M Series D at a $15.75B valuation. Accel led the round, and Kleiner Perkins joined. All existing investors took part, including Menlo Ventures, General Catalyst and Redpoint.

Erik Bernhardsson is the CEO, and Akshat Bubna is the CTO. Modal sells serverless compute for AI. Its customers include DoorDash and Linear. Modal owns no data centers. It pools capacity across more than 20 clouds.

Bernhardsson writes that Modal passed $1B in annualized run rate. Usage tripled in the five months since the Series C, and the company grew more than 15x year over year. Sandboxes alone run at $300M.

The Series C valued Modal at $4.65B five months ago, DatacenterDynamics reports. Investors now pay more than three times that price.

modal.com / See the $750M announcement